Jia Xinguang: The year's predictions for the production and sales of automobiles are to be resolved

In June, automobile production reached 1.39 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.84% and a year-on-year increase of 20.43%; sales were 1.4121 million units, a decrease of 1.83% compared with the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 23.48%. In the first half of this year, a total of 8,927,300 vehicles were produced, an increase of 48.84% year-on-year; sales were 9,061,100, an increase of 47.67% year-on-year.

From April to May, the production and sales of automobiles showed a significant decline, so many media exclaimed that they were “inflection points” and believed that the automobile market would enter the winter season. Some agencies forecast that automobile production and sales in June will also drop by 10% month-on-month. In the first half of the year, automobile sales were about 8.8 million, but the auto production and sales in June fell by less than 2% month-on-month, resulting in sales of more than 9 million vehicles in the first half of the year. Half a year's sales exceeded 9 million units. Will the annual sales volume reach 18 million units?

The seasonal fluctuations of automobile production and sales are regularly followed. The general year is the highest in March, with the monthly sales starting in April and the lowest in August. Then the “golden nine silver ten”, such as 2006, from March to March. In September, the output of automobiles was 732,900, 686,100, 581,000, 577,700, 498,700, 508,800, and 640,900; in 2007, the output from March to September was 853,800. 81,500 vehicles, 710,200 vehicles, 731,100 vehicles, 658,700 vehicles, 637,600 vehicles, and 757,100 vehicles. In 2008, the monthly automobile output was 1.566 million vehicles in March, and it was down to 62.90 million vehicles in August, affected by the financial crisis. The decline was more severe, but it still rose significantly in September, reaching 751,500 vehicles. In 2009, as a result of policy stimulus, the monthly output of automobiles did not show any seasonal fluctuations. As a result, there were 1.109 million units in March, 1.15 million units in April, 1.111 million units in May, 1.142 million units in June, and 1.858 million units in July. There were 1,135,500 vehicles in August and 1,222,300 vehicles in September. Therefore, the decline in the chain from April to June this year is a normal phenomenon, and it will further decline from July to August.

A special situation faced by this year is the deformation of the production and sales curve in 2009, which has become a month-by-month rising curve. In the first half of the year, it has completed 599.08 million units and completed 13.79 million units in the year, and only accounted for 43.44% of the whole year in the first half of the year. In the second half of 2009, production and sales volume “backgammon” lifted the base, so the cumulative growth rate in the second half of the year will decline month by month.

The forecast for the whole year is now quite different. Chang Xiaocun, director of the Department of Market Construction of the Ministry of Commerce, predicts that the car sales this year will be more than 13 million vehicles, and Xu Changming, the national information center, is expected to be about 15 million vehicles, and the growth rate is expected to reach around 15%. Dong Yang, Secretary-General of China Automobile Association, predicts that it is expected to reach 15 million vehicles. Xin Guobin, director of the Office of Supervision, Coordination and Supervision of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, is also the number.

If you multiply 9 million by 2, that's 18 million, no one mentioned this number. In the first half of the year, car sales were generally lower than in the second half of the year. However, many people think that this year's auto market is not good, sales are sluggish, and inventory is increasing. The maximum stock is now 1.55 million, with 1.5 million divided by 50,000 dealers, and the average one dealer is 31. It is reported that some dealers in Beijing have stored 1,000 vehicles, but some dealers have less than 100 vehicles. Therefore, inventory is not the basis for judging the market situation. It can only be explained that in the fast-growing market, some manufacturers' sales did not reach expectations. The index at the beginning of the year is set too high (more than doubled).

Recently, Rao Da, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicles Association, increased the forecast for the wholesale and sales of automobiles for the whole year from 17 million to 17.5 million, which exceeds all agencies except for the Federation of Travel Unions in 2010 for the automotive market in China. prediction. In the absence of major changes, this number is more cautious. There must be an analysis of the role of policy stimuli. Stimulus policies often have a marginal effect, that is, they are most effective for people who buy and don't buy, and their effects will diminish. In the first half of this year, the preference for small-displacement policies weakened, but sales of passenger cars below 1.6L for the first five months of this year still rose by 64.94% (83.40% in 2009), and increased by 47.58% from 1.0-1.6L (71.12% in 2009). Considering the effect of increasing base figures, the growth rate this year is quite high. According to data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, in the first half of the year, the self-owned brand cars accounted for more than 80% of the passenger car market below RMB 80,000. 1.0L and 1.0-1.3L displacement models accounted for the entire 50,000-yuan sedan market, 1.3- The 1.6L displacement range models accounted for more than 75% of the 80,000-100,000 yuan market and 100,000-150,000 yuan market. Therefore, if the slowdown in growth is a problem, the most affected is the self-owned brand.