China's port iron ore inventory is at a historical high

Although the price of imported iron ore recently stabilized and rebounded slightly, with the continued fall in iron ore prices last year, from the quarterly pricing agreement, the iron ore price in the second quarter will fall by about 10% from the previous month, which will directly reduce the Quarterly pricing as the main cost pressure for large steel mills.

Since 2010, the three major iron ore suppliers in the world have terminated their annual iron ore price negotiations with domestic steel companies, turning to quarterly pricing or a shorter monthly price cycle. Large domestic steel companies mostly adopt quarterly agreement pricing.

There has been controversy over the trend of iron ore prices this year. However, the supply and demand relationship between iron ore is a decisive factor or the consensus of the industry, including the supply of global iron ore, as well as the actual production of steel during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and other factors. Industry analysts believe that this year's GDP growth rate positioning 7.5%, steel demand will slow. Coupled with high inventory levels and continued expansion of miner's production capacity, the power for iron ore price increases is clearly insufficient.

Wang Xiaoqi, vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association, said on February 28th at the 2012 China Iron Ore Conference that the situation of oversupply of iron ore has already formed and prices are difficult to support. The price will be between US$110-130/t during the year. In early March, CEO Sam Walsh of Rio Tinto’s iron ore business stated that the global supply of iron ore is still tight and China’s demand is improving.

On February 29, Moody’s, the three largest rating agencies in the world, stated in a report that due to the global iron ore capacity is expected to continue to grow in the next two years, global iron ore production capacity will be 450 million tons per year in the next two years. The speed of growth, while China's steel production is facing contraction, the global iron ore prices may decline in the coming period of time.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 59.319 million tons of iron ore in January, a decrease of 7.4% from the previous period and a decrease of 13.99% year-on-year. The average import price was US$136.5/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%. In addition, iron ore stocks in China's ports are still nearly 100 million tons, which is at a historical high.