China's petroleum and chemical industry output growth forecast in 2012

At the 2012 Petroleum and Chemical Economic Situation Outlook Forum held on the 20th, relevant experts from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation pointed out that in the first 11 months of this year, the enterprises above designated size in the oil and chemical industry realized an industrial output value of 10.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase. 32.6% achieved a historic leap. Next year, the oil and chemical industry economy will continue to maintain a steady growth momentum. The total output value of the industry is expected to reach around 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 18% over the same period of last year.

Strong investment in emerging industries

According to statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, the total output value of the oil and chemical industry was 9.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 33.8% year-on-year, and 4.8 percentage points higher than the national average level. In terms of profitability, the oil and chemical industry sales margin in the first 10 months was 7.55%, while the national average was 6.04%.

Feng Shiliang, director of the Information Department of the China Chemical Industry Association, said that from the perspective of the industry, the profit growth of the chemical industry is the highest. In the first nine months, the oil and chemical industry realized a profit of 618.52 billion yuan, an increase of 29.8%, of which the profit from oil and natural gas was 321.58 billion yuan, an increase of 40.4%; the refinery was 1.17 billion yuan less than the 47.9 billion yuan of the same period of last year; the chemical profit was 238.94 billion yuan. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.7%. However, from the point of view of sales profitability, chemical industry is significantly lower than oil and natural gas, with the former being 6.15% and the latter being 35.06%.

From the perspective of investment in the industry, investment in emerging industries is strong. Feng Shiliang said that the fixed investment in the petroleum and chemical industry in the first 10 months was 1.09 trillion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year, of which the oil and natural gas industry was 166.55 billion yuan, which was same as the same period of last year; the oil refining industry was 113.49 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year; chemical industry 7700.6 Billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%. The growth rate of investment in synthetic materials and special chemicals that belong to emerging industries reached 35.5% and 31.7%, respectively.

The growth rate of sub-industry's output value shows that the petrochemical industry has accelerated the pace of development of emerging industries. In the first 10 months, bio-chemicals, synthetic materials, and specialty chemicals developed rapidly. Among them, bio-pesticides increased by 43.7%, information chemicals increased by 61.4%, specialty chemicals increased by 39.8%, and synthetic fiber monomer polymers increased by 48.6%.

Next year or high

For the industry trend in 2012, Zhao Jungui, vice president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that the industry economy will continue to maintain steady growth, but the growth rate has slowed down compared to 2011, and may be characterized by highs and lows. In 2012, the total output value of the national oil and chemical industry will reach about 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 18% year-on-year; the total annual profit will be about 940 billion yuan, an increase of 16%; the total volume of imports and exports will be about 720 billion US dollars, an increase of about 22%.

In 2012, in terms of product price trends, Wang Zairong, COFCO's chief investment advisor, believes that the overall trend of global commodities in 2012 is to fall first and then rise. Plastics does not rule out the possibility of dropping to 7500-8000 yuan/ton, PTA will be in the first and second quarters. Will fall to 7000-7500 yuan / ton; PVC in the first quarter will be down to 6000-6300 yuan / ton. Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of the business community, believes that the high price point of PTA market is 9,500 yuan/ton; the high price point of LLDPE market is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the low point is 8,000 yuan/ton.

Overall, industry experts are cautiously optimistic about investment opportunities in the petroleum and chemical industries next year. Founder Securities 601901 analyst Zhang Zhenghua said that GDP means demand, CPI means price, crude oil means raw material cost, and the demand encountered by the chemical industry is slowed down in demand growth, rising costs and falling prices, and it is hard to be optimistic in the short term. One can pay attention to upstream products such as potash fertilizers, and downstream emerging industries such as degradable plastics.