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Faced with the arrival of the era of high oil prices, we must take precautions before we can deal with it calmly. At present, China has entered the middle stage of industrialization. The economic structure based on heavy chemical industry has a large demand for energy, coupled with inefficient use of energy, and waste is still very serious. We are now able to borrow high oil prices for enterprises. Costs create opportunities for squeeze, transform extensive development methods, adjust and enhance economic structure, and change some obvious "mistakes" in past industrial policies. For example, the rise in oil prices provides a good opportunity for the integration of the automobile industry, which is blooming and duplicated. In addition, the rise in oil prices will also effectively curb the expansion of the steel industry's capacity and provide an effective role in guiding it to a reasonable level.
In short, China must, like the developed countries, complete the transition from energy-intensive, resource-intensive to information-intensive and knowledge-intensive, and increase the proportion of the tertiary industry in the overall economic structure.
In addition, the development of alternative oil products and the adjustment of energy structure are also crucial to ease the energy shortage and adverse impact brought by high oil prices. At this stage, we can vigorously carry out research on coal liquefaction technology. The relevant agencies estimate that when oil prices exceed 25 US dollars, this technology is profitable. At present, the oil price is more than 90 US dollars. Research and development of such alternative projects must be on the agenda. In addition, in the long run, adjusting the energy structure, increasing the proportion of natural gas, nuclear energy, and hydropower in the energy structure, and developing renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy, and bioenergy are also major strategies for addressing the issue of petroleum safety.
Of course, “there is no way to hydrolyze the nearest thirstâ€. It is imperative to reform the oil price mechanism and the entire oil system as soon as possible, including the timely introduction of the fuel tax.
The current oil pricing mechanism and system is completely inconsistent with the situation in the era of high oil prices. There is a one-month time difference between China's refined oil pricing mechanism and international oil price fluctuations. When the increase in domestic oil prices is lower than the increase in international oil prices, for the sake of the company's own interests, refineries often reduce production to reduce losses. In addition to the time lag, another problem in the oil price mechanism is that the government strictly controls the price, and if the oil giant accepts government control, it must give the enterprise an administrative monopoly to monopolize the production and sales of refined oil.
It can be said that this unreasonable oil pricing mechanism did not pass the price signal to the market as soon as possible, making it difficult for domestic oil prices to respond reasonably to changes in international oil prices. Once such a pricing mechanism is passed on for a long time, prices have not been able to truly reflect the degree of resource scarcity, which will further lead to wasteful consumption of resources. On the other hand, monopolistic monopolies and de facto franchises of oil companies have enabled them to reduce their production and supply as oil scarcity increases, forcing them to meet their price increases.
Therefore, the reform direction of the oil price mechanism is that the price should reflect the supply and demand relationship in the domestic oil market, which will shift the lagging oil price to real-time oil prices. At the same time, it broke the monopoly and established an oil system that was dominated by competitive markets and supplemented by government supervision.
In fact, if the price of refined oil products truly shows its value and allows people who are really capable of spending to bear the high oil prices, they must use the function of taxation to introduce a fuel tax as soon as possible.
In addition to the aforementioned countermeasures, today's international oil prices have been financialized, the spot market is increasingly unable to manipulate the futures market, and China should participate in oil futures transactions as soon as possible in order to reverse the current situation that can only continuously accept new high oil prices. Gradually grasp the right to speak of oil prices.
International crude oil futures prices broke through the first 100 US dollars on January 3, February 21, overnight international oil prices once again set a new record, reaching 101.32 US dollars / barrel. Analysts believe that the current oil price weighed on 100 US dollars, mainly due to the weak dollar, the Texas refinery explosion, OPEC may cut production and tension between Venezuela and the United States.