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The demand for lighting and small-pitch LEDs is long-term, so the next two to three years will continue to drive the downstream demand of the LED industry chain; at the same time, the overall industrial concentration of LEDs continues to increase, improving the barriers to entry for the entire industry. New entrants will be reduced. In addition, due to the long-term improvement of government subsidies in the 13th Five-Year Plan, the gradual exit of lighting and small-pitch LED demand will continue to drive the downstream demand of the LED industry chain in the next two to three years; At the same time, the overall industrial concentration of LED has been continuously improved, which has improved the entry barrier for the whole industry, and the number of new entrants will be reduced. In addition, due to the gradual withdrawal of government subsidies in the 13th Five-Year Plan, the disordered production capacity of the LED chip supply terminal is suppressed. The bargaining power of the upstream industry chain is constantly improving. Therefore, we can intuitively feel that the overall supply pattern of LEDs is undergoing profound changes. LED industry supply and demand structure improvement signs are significant, upstream price increases frequently, downstream performance highlights one: 2016 LED industry chain upstream price increases frequently, some products rose more than 15% March Mulinsen, Jingtai and other packaging companies once price some products Upward; in May, the price of crystal power increased by 15%, Sanan Optoelectronics also has some products slightly increased prices; in August, Sanan and other chip companies have different prices, including Sanan Optoelectronics small and medium size The price of the product has risen by 10%. Huacan Optoelectronics has also adjusted the products with lower profits. In September, Mulinsen, Guoxing Optoelectronics, and Cinda Optoelectronics raised the price of RGB lamp beads, and the increase was 5%-10%. about. According to the survey, at the end of the second quarter of 2016, the prices of many LED chip companies in the industry have begun to rise, and the revenue situation has improved significantly. Taking crystal energy as an example, in early September, the production capacity of crystal power was fully loaded and continued until October. At present, its capacity utilization rate has exceeded 90%, of which the red light machine production capacity is about 90%, the unit price and the profitable red light production line are Fully loaded. According to the data, we have seen that the average price of mainstream packaged devices has stabilized. Compared with the price of packaged devices in 2015, the price of packaged devices has dropped by 50%~60%. The relationship between supply and demand of packaged devices has been greatly improved. Among them, larger package size 5630 can be seen. And 3030, the decline in March-April but has stabilized since April, while the price of package size 2835 has remained stable this year, and some product prices have risen slightly in July. For example, the packaged company Yiguang has increased its share price by 18% since mid-June. At present, the demand for each product line has been fully recovered. The third season will officially enter the peak season instead of just replenishing stocks. Among them, TV backlight performance is the best, mainly driven by the demand for viewing in the Olympic year this year; orders from mainland China's mobile phone backlights and display screens will also contribute significantly to the third quarter revenue. According to the data, global LED bulbs fell by about 9%. Compared with the global replacement of 40W bulbs, the price fell by 12.4% in 2015, and the replacement of 60w bulbs by 9.9%, which is basically in the normal range, mainly due to the improvement of packaging technology. Reduced price declines. At the same time, the price of LED bulbs in China fell by about 11%. Compared with 2015, the price of China's replacement 40W bulbs fell by 18.4%, and the price of replacing 60W bulbs fell by 32.37%. The downward trend has stabilized sharply, reflecting the increasingly stable competition environment in the domestic bulb market. The supply and demand pattern has gradually improved. There are indications that the supply and demand pattern of LED chips has changed. Sign 2: In 2016, LED lighting enterprises' revenues ushered in a turning point. The revenue of many enterprises increased by 40% year-on-year. The downstream LED lighting enterprises' revenues improved significantly. It is verified that the supply and demand pattern of LED lighting has ushered in a turning point and reversed the 15-year decline pattern. From the listed companies in the first half of 2016, revenues can be verified. Sunshine and Foshan revenues increased by 40% year-on-year. NVC's revenue increased by more than 90% year-on-year, which is due to the low LED lighting application base in the first half of the year. The worst time has passed. In 2016, the overall demand and supply pattern of downstream LED lighting applications has already turned around. Demand side: LED lighting penetration space is still large, small spacing ushers in the outbreak through UBS data shows that the LED chip end demand in 2015 has exceeded 90,000 square inches, and is expected to still be 20% growth in 2016, although with LED As the chip's luminous efficiency increases, the LED backlight will have a certain decline in the demand area of ​​the chip. However, with the further improvement of the LED lighting penetration rate and the outbreak of small-pitch demand, it will continue to push the demand for the LED chip end stably. From the demand side analysis one: LED lighting penetration rate is only 27.2%, the whitening catalyzed LED replacement LED lighting penetration rate is only 27.2%, the ban on white light from October 1 to promote LED lighting lamps to further replace white incandescent lamps. 1) Lighting is the main application market for LED downstream. WIND data is roughly 45% in China. According to DIGITIMES data, the global LED lighting market has grown significantly in recent years, from $1.75 billion in 2009 to $29.9 billion in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 60.5%. However, its penetration rate is still not high, only 27.2% in 2015 and more than 30% in 16 years. Therefore, the room for growth is still huge; 2) According to the roadmap for the phase-out of incandescent lamps in China released by China's National Development and Reform Commission and five ministries in November 2011, the final pilot for the implementation of the elimination of incandescent lamps in China is September 30, 2016, 2016. From October 1st, incandescent lamps for general lighting of 15W and above are prohibited from being sold and imported. This was interpreted by the industry as a comprehensive ban on the ban, and the market demand for LED lamps was further released. The domestic incandescent lamp stocks have a huge replacement space. In the first half of 2016, the cumulative output of incandescent bulbs nationwide reached 2.012 billion, with a monthly output of 3-350 million. According to CSA Research data, domestic LED lighting production capacity is about 6 billion in 15 years. If it is completely replaced, it will consume about 60% of the 15-year LED bulb production capacity. Analysis from the demand side 2: Small indoor and outdoor spaces continue to be hot, and the new demand of 40 billion pieces per year in the next two years will continue to be hot in the indoor and outdoor small-pitch market, and there will still be nearly 40 billion new demand every year in 17-18. In recent years, with the advantages of seamless splicing of small-pitch LED displays, DLP and LCD splicing displays are gradually being replaced, and the trend of accelerated growth is appearing. According to the domestic semi-peripheral display leader Liard's semi-annual report, its small-diameter TV has signed a new 1.1 billion yuan, an increase of 104% over the same period of last year; from January to June 2016, the revenue was confirmed to be 482 million yuan, an increase of 93 over the same period last year. %; small-pitch TV gross margin remained at 39.78%. Other listed companies such as Ai Biesen, Chau Ming Technology, Lian Jian Optoelectronics, Alto Electronics, Lehman, etc., which are involved in the LED display business, have also enjoyed satisfactory display performance this year. This shows that the small-pitch LED display market is developing at a high speed. According to the data, the average number of LEDs used per square meter of indoor LED display will gradually increase from 60,000 in 2015 to 270,000 in the next two years. Under the same area, the number of LED packages and chips used will increase by three times. the above. It is estimated that the consumption of small-pitch LEDs will reach 29 billion granules in 2016. As the packaging materials in China gradually develop towards localization, the cost will further decline and promote market development. In 2021, the consumption of small-pitch LEDs will reach 189.8 billion granules. The compound growth rate is as high as 46%. In addition, the outdoor display has also begun to appear in the trend of small-pitch packaging. With the surface-mount LEDs suitable for outdoor use, the technical problems of high-definition and high-density of outdoor displays are gradually emerging, and the average spacing is from P10 progresses below P6 and is expected to grow exponentially. LEDinside estimates that the consumption of outdoor LEDs will grow from 93.6 billion in 2015 to 286.4 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 20%. It is estimated that the total demand for small and small indoor and outdoor spaces in 16 years will reach 141.3 billion, and will grow at a compound growth rate of 28%, and there will still be nearly 39 billion new demand every year in 17-18. According to the high-tech LED data, the current production capacity of small-pitch LEDs is estimated to be around 70 billion, so the supply and demand gap will remain large in the future. Supply side: chip capacity expansion is limited, and package concentration is significantly improved. UBS data shows that LED chip end supply capacity is less than 92,000 square inches in 2015. It is expected to increase only slightly in 2016, mainly after deep industrial washing in 2015. Cards, only about 4,000 LED companies in China have withdrawn from the market, while foreign LED chip manufacturers have cut production, and other willingness to continue to expand production has been significantly suppressed. China’s subsidies for chip-side subsidies have been narrowed due to the implementation of supply-side reforms. It is to inhibit the capacity expansion of the chip side. Analysis from the supply side: Industry subsidies are narrowing, and the production capacity of LED chips is greatly inhibited. The 13th Five-Year Plan no longer includes the LED industry in the cultivation industry, and upstream chip subsidies are gradually narrowing. The narrowing of subsidies at the government level will inhibit the disorderly expansion of LED chip production from the source of the industry chain, and it is expected to transfer subsidies to the LED lighting application terminal, which will pull the LED industry chain from the demand side. As a new industry in 2009, the rapid development of the LED industry, government subsidies played an important role. According to public information, China has subsidized the LED industry since 2009, and the subsidy is very large. In 2013, the State Council and local governments successively issued policies to promote the LED industry. According to statistics, taking Sanan Optoelectronics as an example, as a subsidy for the LED industry, from 2010 to 2015, the amount of subsidies exceeded 3 billion yuan. In 2010, Sanan Optoelectronics received government subsidies of more than 700 million yuan, accounting for 60% of 2010 net profit; in 2011, it accounted for 86%; in 2012, it accounted for 60%, accounting for 2013 The ratio is 45.7%, and the proportion in 2014 is still around 50%, accounting for 28% in 2015. According to industry insiders recently, after a round of shuffling, the target of government subsidies has changed: at present, only those enterprises that can become the leading enterprises are subsidized, and the subsidy has been narrowed. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are more likely to take subsidies. small. After the subsidy was abolished in 2015, the investment in new production line machines increased greatly. The price of a single MOCVD could reach 20 million yuan, and many enterprises would not be able to afford it. The narrowing of government subsidies means that the disordered production capacity of the LED chip and package terminals will be restrained. At the same time, if the LED lighting application is further subsidized in the future, the overall supply and demand pattern of the LED industry will be fundamentally improved. The LED industry chain is expected to benefit as a whole and further turn. warm.