International crude oil prices continue to fall Domestic oil prices are expected to fall in late October

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for delivery in November fell 1.83 US dollars to settle at US$89.88 per barrel, a 2% drop, the lowest closing price in a week, and the recent cumulative decline has reached 4%. At this point, oil prices in both New York and London hit their lowest closing prices since August this year. With the plunge in the price of crude oil futures, domestic oil prices are expected to usher in the fourth time this year since the end of this month.

According to the monitoring of Zhongyu Information, as of October 5th, crude oil in the three places moved for an average weighted average price of US$111.209 per barrel for 22 consecutive days, the benchmark average price was US$113.321 per barrel, and the change rate of crude oil in the three places was -1.86%, compared to the previous day. It fell 0.08%. The monitoring of Zhuo Chuang Information, an energy company in China, shows that the latest three-site crude oil change rate has also reached -1.86%, down by 0.09% from the previous day. This also means that if the current international oil price continues to fall, then the oil change rate in the three places in late October can be broken by -4%, and domestic oil prices are facing a new round of adjustment.

“If the current average price of crude oil continues to fall by another 0.5 US dollar, that is, US$108.19 per barrel, the rate of change in crude oil in the three countries will fall below -4% on October 18.” said Zhu Chunkai, analyst at Zhuo Chuangxin Refined Oil. According to Zhuo Chuang Information's previous monitoring data, Zhu Chunkai believes that the downward adjustment of oil prices this month will become a high probability event.

Lu Bin, another oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that before the U.S. election, international oil prices will continue to decline, and the domestic demand season will already be over, and the domestic refined oil market will face insufficient demand.

In fact, with the drop in international oil prices, the wholesale market oil prices have begun to loosen. The data collected by Zhuo Chuang Information Technology Co., Ltd. shows that, compared with September 21, the wholesale price of the main units in most regions in China is reduced. As of October 4th, the domestic average diesel price of No. 0 was 8,412 yuan/ton, down by 98 yuan/ton; the average price of 93th gasoline was 9,654 yuan/ton, down by 89 yuan/ton.

Affected by the negative trend of the rate of change in the three places, the Zhejiang market is seeing a strong hollow. Compared with mid-September, the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel recently fell by around 100 yuan per ton. However, the downturn in the wholesale market has not yet affected the retail sector. At present, the sales promotion of private gas stations in Zhejiang Province is between RMB 0.1/l and RMB 0.3/l. There are no new promotions for petrol stations of Sinopec and PetroChina. "If the wholesale price drops significantly, there will be room for gas station promotions," said the person in charge of a private gas station in Zhejiang.