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The reporter noted that after the international oil price fell to the US$50 mark, the international coal price actually fell sharply as predicted by the newspaper. According to the weekly index of the Global Coal Electronic Trading Platform, last weekend (November 21st), the international coal price, which was already under US$100 per ton, suddenly fell by nearly US$12/ton to US$85.69/. In tons, the decline rate reached 12.13%.
“At present, the domestic coal industry still faces many negative factors in the future. It is expected that the spot price will continue to decline in the coming period,†said Wang Shuai, chief of the coal industry of Orient Securities.
Another analyst said that at present, the spot price of coal in the future is likely to be “back to the original shape†and fall back to the level at the beginning of 2007, that is, the calorific power of 6000 kcal/kg of coal is about 550 yuan per ton. The price gap between long-term agreements with coal is maintained at around 50 yuan per ton.
In fact, “The thermal coal of 5,000 kcal/kg of coal is already the price, and thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal also falls to this price,†said a coal trader at Qinhuangdao Port. This situation appeared in the winter season with coal, making the industry less optimistic about the future coal industry situation.
“The increase in demand brought about by the winter coal consumption peak has not offset the contraction in demand caused by the economic downturn, and the thermal coal plummeted. On November 17, the Qinhuangdao Port generated 6,000 kcal/kg of Datong high-quality hybrid coal on the FOB market. It was 780 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous week, a drop of up to 10.3%, and the weekly decline was a record high in recent years. Since November, it has fallen by 160 yuan/ton, a drop of up to 17%.†Wang Shuai The calculation and analysis pointed out.
A research report of BOCI International also stated that “we are more pessimistic about the prosperity of the coal industry. With the sharp drop in demand, coal prices have fallen sharply, coupled with policy-related costs, and industry performance will decline significantly next year. â€
The report also analyzes and predicts that as the industry's economy declines, users and transit chain inventory reach historical highs, and it is estimated that domestic spot steam coal prices will continue to fall. Based on the cost analysis, it is estimated that Qinhuangdao Shanxi excellent mixed coal (heating capacity 5,500 kcal/year The spot price of kilograms can be stabilized at 590 yuan/ton.
"In addition to the continued decline in spot prices, based on the sharp decline in electricity demand, Inner Mongolia recently lowered the industrial electricity price from 0.045 yuan to 0.08 yuan per kWh. This event indicates that economic growth is still the government in the context of accelerated economic downturn. First choice, and structural adjustment will slow down.Overall, in the future, the possibility that the national electricity price will be raised again is very small. Considering the current loss situation of power companies, the possibility of lowering the price of coal contracts in 2009 is increasing. "Wang Shuai said.
The BOCI International report pointed out that the global financial tsunami directly led to a sharp slowdown in the demand and output growth of the four major downstream coal demand sectors (electricity, steel, cement, and fertilizers), and this low growth is expected to continue for a long time. China's coal industry is hard to keep up its own.
Under the traction of international oil prices, last weekend, the international coal price dropped by nearly 12 US dollars per ton, to 85.69 US dollars / ton, a single week more than a drop of 12%. In this regard, industry insiders expect that in the international market squeeze, and the weakening of the downstream demand of coal, electricity, cement and other coal downstream industries, domestic coal prices have been "back to the original shape", that is, return to the level of early 2007, about 550 Yuan/ton.