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As a basic chemical raw material, soda ash occupies an important position in the national economy and is known as the "mother of chemical industry." In recent years, China's soda ash industry has maintained a rapid growth rate. As early as 2003, domestic soda ash production capacity has exceeded the United States as the world's largest producer of soda ash. In 2005, China's total soda production was more than 14 million tons. After full capacity expansion, soda ash producers competed fiercely and profits fell sharply. However, there are multiple indications that the recent soda industry has shown signs of recovery. As one of the leading soda ash industries, Tang Sanyou (600409) is expected to achieve rapid growth.
Clear trend of recovery
In recent years, due to environmental reasons, developed countries have continuously shut down soda ash plants, and China has many advantages such as low technology, capital, resources, and labor costs. As a result, China has gradually become the world’s production and export base for soda ash industry. In 2005, China’s soda ash exports hit a record high, with 1.775 million tons of soda ash exports and 24.14% increase in exports. The rapid growth of exports of soda ash products has become one of the important drivers for the development of the industry.
At the same time, since May 2006, the price of soda ash has apparently stabilized and recovered. The soda ash price in East China market stabilized at 1,550 yuan/ton from the beginning of May to the middle of May. As of early June, soda ash prices are still rising steadily. From the perspective of cost, raw salt is the main raw material for the production of soda ash. It consumes 1.6 tons of raw salt per ton of soda ash, and raw salt accounts for about 40--50% of soda ash production costs. The domestic salt factory price began to decline. In the first quarter of this year, the price has dropped to around 260 yuan/ton. As of early June, the original salt price has dropped to about 180 yuan/ton, so the production cost of soda ash is continuously declining.
Through these comprehensive analysis, it is shown that the current soda ash industry is in the process of gradual recovery, and the profitability of relevant companies is gradually improving and improving. Tang Sanyou G is one of the important soda ash production enterprises in China, second only to Shandong Haihua. After the company's soda ash production capacity was upgraded to 400,000 tons of solid-phase hydration technology, the production capacity has reached 1.6 million tons per year, and the product structure has been continuously adjusted. The company's soda ash solidification rate has reached 80%, effectively avoiding Before 2004, the production and sales volume due to the high proportion of light alkali was far lower than the production capacity. The heavy alkali that was more vigorous than the market demand was also about 100 yuan/ton more than the light alkali. Adjustment can not only ensure the sales of products, but also effectively improve the asset efficiency rate through structural adjustment. In addition, the company's soda ash has achieved a bulk rate of 30% and a low salinization rate of 100%, all of which can ensure the company's product sales rate. With a stable production scale, not only will the improvement of sales structure maintain and enhance the industry's leading position.
The subsequent 200,000 tons of PVC and 200,000 tons of caustic soda will also be gradually built. After the completion of the chlor-alkali project 30/30, the net soda ash ratio of G Tang Sanyou will drop to 60%, the chlor-alkali business will account for 40%, and the company will become a chlor-alkali, soda ash co-producer. The business structure will be further optimized, and joint production will provide cost advantages. The diversification of business structure can also improve the company's ability to resist risks.
Glass is the most important application area of ​​soda ash. Consumption accounts for about 45% of total soda ash consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of glass production in China in the first four months of 2006 reached 12.21%, and the demand for soda ash was quite strong. Soda ash industry's other consumer sectors such as detergents and alumina industry have maintained a momentum of rapid development, especially in April-April 2006 domestic alumina production growth of 48.66% year-on-year, which will surely benefit the growth of soda ash demand.
G. Tang Sanyou is also located in Tangshan, which is within the effective radiation scope of the previous concept of the seashore market. With the acceleration of the construction of Binhai New Area, large-scale projects in the region have started one after another. At present, the 12.5 million tons of oil refining and 1 million tons ethylene project invested by Sinopec has officially commenced construction; the Tiangan relocation project with an investment of about 8 billion yuan has started; the key projects such as the third phase of steel pipe and Gaoxin Textile Park have progressed smoothly; and the new port shipyard has been relocated and reconstructed. The preliminary work has already begun. These projects will greatly increase the demand for basic building materials such as glass and alumina, thereby effectively stimulating the demand for soda ash consumption and making G Tang Sanyou's development more pleasing.
The fierce offensive The fierce battle
From the Zhou K line, G Tang Youyou had 3 rights removal before and after, and the stock price fell to 2.91 yuan. However, with the start of the bull market, the stock has begun to form a gradual trend. Even before this year’s stock rights were extinguished, 47.77% of the gains were completed beautifully, and the closure of the share reform right gap was successfully completed. After the stock price bottomed out, it continued to oscillate for four consecutive weeks. This week, it even further conquered the 10 and 30-week moving averages. The signs of contrarian eruptions are extremely clear. From the perspective of the Japanese K-line, the stock re-pulls the stock price back to a relatively low position by sending 10 shares, 3 shares, and 1.3 yuan in ex-dividends, opening up the space for the main control panel to operate in the future. And in the process of creating new highs in the market, the stock has a long way to go, and is not firm on the sidelines. Today, the stock broke out in the late afternoon, breaking through the finishing platform in one fell swoop and launching a brutal attack on the 60-day moving average. There is no doubt that Thursday's battle will become even fiercer.
Soda ash industry recovers new opportunities