China's tire market development prospects forecast car tire demand is increasing geometrically

From the development history of China's tire industry in the past decade, it can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage was from 1999 to 2000. Due to overcapacity, China's tire industry showed a loss in the whole industry. The second stage was from 2001 to 2005. As the country's macro economy continued to improve, especially the domestic automobile industry produced a large amount. Driven by the growth and strong export of tires, China's tire industry has recovered rapidly, and its operating income and total profit have maintained a relatively fast growth rate. The third stage is from 2006 to the present, the scale of China's tire industry continues to grow.

After the “blowout” of the tire industry, it is less likely to continue to grow substantially. On the one hand, the growth rate of automobile production and sales at home and abroad is down, and the demand for tires is not growing. On the other hand, China's tire industry is becoming more mature, the scale of enterprises is growing, and the production capacity is increasing sharply. In recent years, due to the inflation of raw materials such as natural rubber, the fluctuation of production and sales in the automobile market, the resistance of the export market and environmental protection, China's tire industry has entered a rational callback in the process of lowering.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that there were 564 tire companies in the country in 2016. Among them, private enterprises account for the vast majority. The scale of most private enterprises is not large, and the products produced are mainly low-end products, which are not competitive and have weak anti-risk ability.

Under the influence of the rapid development of the automobile market in recent years, the Chinese tire industry has maintained a rapid development momentum. According to the "China Tire Industry Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report" released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the sales revenue of China's tire industry in 2008 was 186.476 billion yuan, and the sales revenue of China's tire industry in 2016 was 597.169 billion yuan; The growth rate has declined significantly in recent years. Overall, the sales scale of the Chinese tire industry has grown rapidly.

2008-2016 China tire industry sales revenue growth (unit: 100 million yuan)

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Prospective Industry Research Institute

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's automobile industry, the tire industry has entered a period of rapid growth, and China has become a world tire production and consumption country. A large number of used tires are also produced while the tires are mass produced. At present, about 250 million tires are scrapped every year in China, the tire retreading output is only about 13 million, the refurbishing rate is less than 5%, and the tire refurbishment ratio in developed countries is more than 45%. The retreaded tire industry has great room for development.

China tire market development prospects forecast

(1) International tire market growth

China has become a big country in tire production. Not only does the government support the development of enterprises, but China's related companies have begun to work hard to strive for a fairer trading environment. A better industry environment is taking shape. The data shows that China's tire industry export destinations are still dominated by North America, but demand growth began to shift to Europe and Central and South America.

(2) Having a good market foundation

China now has the second largest automotive market in the world. According to the latest data released by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, according to the statistics of the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, as of the end of 2016, the number of motor vehicles in the country reached 290 million, including 194 million vehicles; 360 million motorists, including more than motorists 3.1 billion people. With so many motor vehicle possessions, there is no doubt that China has become the world's largest tire manufacturing country, with annual tire production accounting for 38% of global tire production. The global tire manufacturing industry has a clear trend of shifting to the Asia-Pacific region, which will benefit China's high-quality tire enterprises for a long time.

(III) Forecast of market development scale

Overall, with the rapid development of China's highway transportation and automobile industry, the number of various vehicles is increasing at an alarming rate, and the demand for automobile tires is increasing geometrically. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2016, the output of rubber tires in China reached 947 million, a cumulative increase of 8.6%.

From a macro perspective, although China's national economic growth rate will slow down, it will still maintain a growth rate of around 6.5%. As the export of tires may be suppressed, it is expected to be supplemented in other markets, and China's auto market is still growing at a faster rate. The growth rate of the tire market in the next few years should be around 7.5%, and will reach 1.265 billion by 2020. about.