Asian petrochemical base test

Zhanjiang's immersed in the joy of the 10 million-ton steel project has not yet returned to life. The gold finger has pointedly pointed to her: Zhongke's 15 million-ton oil refining and chemical integration project landed in the city. The landing of the project is like recreating an industrial Zhanjiang. At the same time, it poses new challenges to her resource carrying capacity and environmental carrying capacity.

Another reality that has to be faced with is that the centralization of large-scale refinery projects can certainly boost the economy, but it also faces the challenge of falling demand for oil products. For the entire oil refining industry, there is also potential for expansion of production capacity.

Irresistible temptation

The 15 million-ton oil refining and chemical integration project of China Branch settled in Zhanjiang. For Chen Yaoguang, party secretary of Zhanjiang City, it was like heaven fell.

Due to environmental disputes, the 15 million-ton refinery integrated chemical project to be settled in Nansha, Guangzhou, reluctantly abandoned Nansha and chose another site. When the news came out, Zhanjiang, which is famous for its port economy, and Maoming, a petrochemical city, immediately extended their olive branches. Huizhou and Jiangmen also joined the ranks of competitors.

The total investment of Zhongke Refining is planned to be approximately US$8 billion to US$9 billion, with 15 million tons of oil refining, 1 million tons of ethylene and downstream chemical products.

"For the local government with a heroic view of GDP, it is an irresistible temptation." China Petroleum [15.29 0.46%] One person who is not willing to be named in the General Planning Institute of China, said that Sinopec's 15 million-ton project will be given to local governments. The government has brought in 150 billion yuan in GDP growth. For any city in Guangdong, once the project is successfully acquired, it can bring more than 10% economic growth to the city. Therefore, it is not difficult for us to understand the enthusiasm displayed by local governments in the project.

In addition, the petrochemical industry has the characteristics of long industry chain and high correlation. According to industry estimates, the upstream petrochemical project's driving effect on the downstream petrochemical industry is about 1:50.

The site of the project is Zhanjiang. According to Wu Qingbiao, president of the Guangdong Petroleum Association, Zhanjiang has its advantages. For example, considering resources and the environment, Zhanjiang has unique advantages in the development of petrochemical industry. First, land resources are relatively abundant, Zhanjiang has obvious advantages, and there are deep-water ports, which is an ideal place for the development of the petrochemical industry. Second, Zhanjiang has a relatively low intensity of development and does not form a large residential area. It is also more suitable for industrial development.

Chen Yaoguang said that Zhanjiang has the deepwater port first, with 300,000 tons of oil tanker terminals and more than 200,000 tons of ships coming in. Second, Zhanjiang is the nearest mainland port to the Straits of Malacca. According to Chen Yaoguang, the development of petrochemical and other large-scale port industries in Zhanjiang has a unique advantage.

Compared with the conditions in other cities, the key advantage of Zhanjiang is that Sinopec has a product pipeline for the Pearl River Delta. If a factory is built in Zhanjiang, processed oil will be transported through this pipeline. The entire Pearl River Delta pipeline over 1,000 kilometers is the first The station is Zhanjiang, passing through Maoming, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen and other cities along the way.

In addition, in the 2008 “New Ten Projects” announced by Guangdong, the investment in the petrochemical industry was further increased to 267 billion yuan, and the Zhanjiang refinery was expanded to 20 million tons per year; currently, the Zhanjiang Dongxing refinery only reached 5 million in the year. The production capacity of tons of oil refining, China Chemical Branch's 15 million tons oil refining and chemical integration project settled in Zhanjiang, is in line with the layout planning of the Guangdong petrochemical industry.

Is Zhanjiang ready?

15 million tons of oil refining project, after landing is a petrochemical base. She also put forward many requirements for the project undertaker.

According to Wang Zhen of the China Energy Strategy Research Center, the main environmental constraints for the development of petrochemical industries are resource carrying capacity and environmental carrying capacity. The resource carrying capacity is mainly the land carrying capacity and the water resources bearing capacity. The environmental carrying capacity is mainly the available environment. Capacity, which is the environment can accept all kinds of pollutants entered.

For example, the environmental carrying capacity, on the domestic level, for some old oil refineries, its emission factor should be around 10, that is to say 10,000 tons of crude oil per refining, and 10 tons of sulfur dioxide emissions. Specifically considering the construction of 15 million tons, the international and domestic comparatively advanced production technologies and pollution control technologies will be adopted, and the emission factor should be between 3-3.5.

In this regard, Wang Zhen believes that the establishment of a new petrochemical plant, we must adhere to the "industrial ecological park concept." Han Xiaoping, CEO of China Energy Network, said that assuming 300,000 tons of a ship and 15 million tons of production capacity requires 50 such large ships, it requires a great acceptance, the location of the coast, a deep-water terminal, the terminal should have shelter conditions Support etc.

There must also be sufficient quality fresh water resources. The refinery with a crude oil processing capacity of 15 million tons per year needs approximately 8.4 million tons of fresh water each year. The main purpose of fresh water is recycled water used to cool equipment, materials, reaction water during production, steam production, and gas cabinet water seals.

Zhanjiang currently has a steel base of 10 million tons. According to the consumption of 3.72 tons of water per ton of steel, Zhanjiang builds a dam at Jianjiangkou, forming a storage capacity of nearly 90 million cubic meters. The water supply project will supply 600,000 tons of water per day. Satisfy the production and domestic water needs of the steel base and the development of the periphery of the East Sea Island. This 15 million-ton oil refinery project poses new challenges to the supply of freshwater resources in Zhanjiang.

Wang Zhen said that in terms of the depth and concentration of the petrochemical industry, whether Zhanjiang can attract world-famous companies such as BASF, and attract more midstream and downstream enterprises to Zhanjiang, truly makes Zhanjiang a world petrochemical industry. Gold Coast. Well, human resources plays an important role in the output of such large production capacity, and it is also one of the challenges.

Billion tons of refining capacity debate

To develop the petrochemical industry, Guangdong is ambitious. This resource- and energy-poor province wants to establish itself as a "Asian petrochemical base."

During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, Guangdong announced plans for a large enough petrochemical industry. Guangdong plans to invest 180 billion yuan to plan the construction of Huizhou Daya Bay Petrochemical District, Maozhan Coastal Heavy Industry Belt, Guangzhou Petrochemical Base, and Yamenkou Coastal Heavy Industry. Bands and Chaozhou explode coastal chemical bases, a total of five petrochemical bases; newly build and expand five refinery projects, five ethylene projects, and a large number of downstream chemicals, with a refining capacity of 65 million tons per year. However, in the “New Ten Projects” announced by Guangdong in 2008, the investment in the petrochemical industry was further increased to 267 billion yuan.

In the “new ten projects”, in addition to the expansion of Zhanjiang’s oil refining capacity to 20 million tons/year, the expansion and expansion of the new petrochemical refining projects accounted for several projects, including the 90 billion yuan Huizhou Daya Bay refinery expansion to 40 million. Ton/year project; taking Maoming-Kunming Southwest Product Oil Pipeline and Zhanjiang-Maoming-Pearl River Delta Product Oil Pipeline Project as opportunities, Maoming Petrochemical Co., Ltd., with an investment of 67 billion yuan, will expand to 20 million tons per year.

In addition, in March this year, CNPC and Venezuela’s state-owned oil companies signed an agreement to invest in a large refinery with a refining capacity of 20 million tons in China. The two parties unanimously decided to locate the site in Jieyang City in eastern Guangdong.

According to this scale of development, Guangdong Petrochemical's production capacity will reach a big leap by then, with annual refining capacity reaching over 60 million tons. By 1012, it will reach 100 million tons. The petrochemical industry's annual GDP will reach 730 billion yuan. Yuan Renminbi has thus built a petrochemical industrial system with advanced equipment and management concepts and international competitiveness. Guangdong will also become one of the major petrochemical bases in Asia.

For the entire oil refining industry, the expansion of production capacity also has hidden concerns.

The 10 million tons of Sudanese crude oil refining project built by CNPC in Guangxi Beibu Gulf was originally put into production this year. Due to the current sluggishness of the refined oil market, production was postponed.

“Under the downside risk of the economy, the centralized implementation of large-scale refinery projects can certainly boost domestic demand, but it also faces the challenge of falling demand for oil products.” The Guangdong Petroleum Association believes that according to sales figures of Sinopec and PetroChina last year, from 2010, The total demand for refined oil products in South China is about 40.75 million tons, while the production capacity of gasoline and diesel will increase to 47.1 million tons, which means that there is a surplus of 6.35 million tons of newly added refining capacity in South China.

According to industry sources, investment in expanding refining capacity must be based on the actual market situation. Judging from the layout of the three major oil giants in South China, the realization of 15 million tons of production capacity in Zhanjiang is not favorable in the short term.